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True Gridiron's AFC midseason report
My AFC preseason predictions included the Jets going to the Super Bowl.
Here's the midseason update to see how I'm doing so far.
AFC East
Jets
Predicted: 12-4. Winning division, going to the Super Bowl.
Midseason record: 5-3, tied for first.
Analysis: Jets are 22nd in offense but 8th in defense. They still have to play the Patriots, Bills, Eagles and Giants. The Jets are still my pick to win the division. But to get to the Super Bowl, they will need to pick it up on offense.
Patriots
Predicted: 11-5. Wildcard.
Midseason record: 5-3, tied for first.
Analysis: The Patriots are 1st in points and dead last in defense. Not only a bad combination. But has this ever happened before? Pats have a relatively easy schedule with only the Jets, Eagles, and Bills presenting any real challenges. Although I think the Patriots will make the playoffs, their defense will let them down early. The keys to stopping the Patriots offense: 1) pressuring Tom Brady; 2) shutting down Wes Welker. I for one am sick of people saying how great Tom Brady is. I'm not saying he isn't a great QB. But people think he's God. Brady is only as good as his superb offensive line. Brady is the only guy who can operate in the spread with 5 wides on every play and get ALL day to pass. He never gets touched. Give that
combo to any QB and he will seem Brady-like.
Dolphins
Predicted: 9-7
Midseason record: 1-7
Analysis: The down-and-out days of the Dolphins are one of the most disappointing stories of 2011. But I will say they put up a fight every game. They should have beaten the Broncos and they played the Giants tough. Then they went out to K.C. and pounded them 31-3 on the Chiefs' home turf. I have much more respect for them then I do the "Hoping for Andrew Luck" Colts, who are clearly tanking every game.
Bills
Predicted: 2-14
Midseason record: 5-3, tied for first
Analysis: What can I say? I was dead wrong about this team. Although I don't think anyone except die-hard Bills fans predicted this. Still, my hats off to Chan Gailey and to Bills fans. This is what I said about the Bills 9 weeks ago before the season started: "This team stinks, plain and simple." The Bills still have these teams on their slate: Cowboys Jets, Chargers and Patriots.Not an easy road, especially with a 26th ranked defense.
AFC North
Ravens
Predicted: 12-4. Winning division.
Midseason record: 6-2
Analysis: I was impressed with the Ravens until they looked pathetic on Monday Night Football against the Jaguars, especially Joe Flacco. Then they turned around and beat the Steelers in Pittsburgh and Flacco was wacko wonderful.
Analysis: I predicted the "Ravens are set to torch the Steelers." And they have, beating them in both meetings this year. But, what really counts will be beating them in the playoffs. Ravens still have to play Bengals twice, plus 49ers and Chargers.
Steelers
Predicted: 10-6. Wildcard
Midseason record: 6-3
Analysis: I predicted the Steelers would make the playoffs but would "take a step back" because of the aftereffects of losing the Super Bowl. That appeared to be true early on, but the Steelers have looked solid the past few weeks. They are 3rd in offense and 9th in defense. Plus they have only 3 tough games left: Bengals twice and 49ers. Still, I see the Steelers not getting past the Ravens in the playoffs, if they actually meet.
Browns
Predicted: 6-10
Midseason record: 3-5
Analysis: Losing Peyton Hillis to an assortment of injuries and bad judgment has hurt the offense. They still have to play the Steelers twice, the Bengals and the Ravens. That's four highly possible losses.
Bengals
Predicted: 3-13
Midseason record: 6-2
Analysis: Once again, I was dead wrong about this team. But who thought the Bengals would be good? I include die-hard Bengal fans here because I don't think they exist, do they? The truth is, the Bengals may sport a nice record and still not make the playoffs. They still have to play the Steelers twice, Ravens twice, and Texans.
AFC South
Texans
Predicted: 10-6. Winning division.
Midseason record: 6-3
Analysis: Having the Colts fold like a French army has helped the Texans. Still they have the top ranked defense, even without Mario Williams. The duo of Arian Foster and Ben Tate will take the Texans fairly deep into the playoffs, even though apparently no one runs the ball anymore. Texans only have 3 challenging games left: Buccaneers, Falcons and Bengals. All of them winnable.
Colts
Predicted: 9-7
Midseason record: 0-9
Analysis: In my 42 years of watching the NFL, I've never seen a team tank it like this team has. Zero effort each week. So what if they don't have Peyton Manning! They still have Reggie Wayne, Dallas Clark, Joseph Addai, Jeff Saturday, Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis. You're telling me these Pro Bowlers can't scratch out a single victory. If they get the top pick, I hope Andrew Luck refuses to play for them and forces a trade to the Dolphins who are at least busting their butts.
Jaguars
Predicted: 6-10
Midseason record: 2-6
Analysis: Coach Jack Del Rio should be fired, but he will get a pass because he played rookie QB Blaine Gabbert early. Maurice Jones-Drew is still great but he's pounded it so much over the years, his career will start to slide. This team may fall short of my 6 wins prediction.
Titans
Predicted: 5-11
Midseason record: 4-4
Analysis: The Titans are playing better than I thought because at this point, I figured rookie QB Jake Locker would be taking most of the snaps. But since the Titans have a decent shot at finishing with a winning record, Locker should sit and learn from watching Matt Hasselbeck. Still with the Buccaneers, Falcons, Saints and Bills on the schedule, Locker should be given a couple starts near the end.
AFC West
Chiefs
Predicted: 11-5, Winning division
Midseason record: 4-4
Analysis: Will the real Chiefs please stand up? They started atrocious, losing Jamaal Charles and Matt Cassel looking like he never played in college. OK, he didn't but you know what I mean. Then they flicked a switch and they won four games. Only to lay a deuce at home against the Dolphins. Problem is, the Chiefs by far have the toughest second-half of the schedule: Patriots, Steelers, Bears, Jets, Packers. Not to mention tough division games vs. Denver twice, and Raiders. In this division, 8-8 (or worse) might win it. Still, I don't see the Chiefs doing it.
Chargers
Predicted: 9-7
Midseason record: 4-4
Analysis: A couple weeks ago I wrote a column defending Tim Tebow saying the bottom line when it comes to quarterbacking in the NFL is winning. Tebow may look ugly out there, but he's showing he can win. Philip Rivers, on the other hand, is a prolific passer but has anyone looked worse when the game is on the line this season, than Rivers? So bad that I was able to pick him up off waivers yesterday for my fantasy team. Seriously. Chargers second-half isn't easy either: Bears, Bills, Ravens
and Lions. Plus division games vs Raiders twice (which they lost the first one Thursday night at home), and Broncos. But considering the teams in this division, I think they will win the West … but all four teams (including the Broncos) should have a chance.
Raiders
Predicted: 6-10
Midseason record: 4-4
Analysis: While the death of Al Davis seemed to reinvigorate this franchise, the possible season-ending injury to Jason Campbell has hurt them with bad back-to-back losses at the hands of replacements Kyle Boller and Carson Palmer. They gave up two #1 picks for Palmer who has rewarded them with 6 interceptions in two games. Palmer did improve dramatically Thursday night at San Diego but I'm not sold on them winning the division. They play the Bears, Packers and Lions in the second half. Plus division games with Chargers and Chiefs.
Broncos
Predicted: 6-10
Midseason record: 3-5
Analysis: Bronco fans, especially Tim Tebow supporters like myself, hope the unorthodox lefty with Moxie like the late-great Joe Frazier will continue to improve as he showed against the Raiders. The Broncos were smart to finally gear the offense to Tebow's Florida Gator offense. At this point, it's all about winning games and giving Tebow confidence. Heck, they are only 1 game out of first place. The pocket passing will come in time. Remember how long it took Michael Vick to become a pocket passer? OK, Tebow will never resemble Brady, Peyton Manning, Drew Brees or Aaron Rodgers. But in a few years he could turn out to be Steve Young
or, gulp, Roger Staubach. Both unorthodox winners. Heck, he's already playing like throwback Joe Kapp, another winner. The second half will not be easy. In fact,
the next 10 days will be trying enough: at KC then home against the Jets on Thursday Night. They also play Bears, Patriots, Bills. Plus division games vs Chiefs twice and Chargers. Bottom line: Tebow has a tough road ahead, but if he can play well and win 5 of the next 8, he should secure the QB job for next year. Who knows, 8 wins may be good enough to win the division!
Playoff teams predicted: Jets, Patriots, Texans, Steelers, Ravens, Chiefs
Midseason playoff picture: The Jets, Patriots, Texans, Steelers and Ravens should fulfill my predictions and make the playoffs. In the West, it's anybody's game. Deep down I think the Broncos can do it if the coaching staff truly starts supporting Tebow with game plans that play to his strengths.
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